Weekly Currency 14 Jan 2008

15 01 2008

Nilai tukar Yen tidak banyak mengalami perubahan terhadap USD dalam perdagangan minggu kemarin. Pada hari pertama perdagangan, Yen ditutup sedikit melemah pada level 109.2 dari level 108.6 pada penutupan hari Jumat minggu sebelumnya (4 Januari 2008). Pada hari perdagangan selanjutnya, Yen berfluktuasi hingga akhirnya ditutup pada level 108.9 di hari Jumat yang lalu (11 Januari 2008). Secara keseluruhan, Yen hanya melemah sebesar 0.2% dibandingkan penutupan minggu sebelumnya.

Yen tidak banyak berubah pada perdagngan minggu lalu dikarena terdapat sentimen negatif dan sentimen positif terhadap Yen pekan kemarin. Sentimen negatif muncul setelah gubernur Bank Sentral Jepang (BOJ), Toshihiko Fukui, diperkirakan akan memberi sinyal kepada pelaku pasar bahwa BOJ akan tetap mempertahankan suku bunga pada level saat ini, yaitu sebesar 0.5%. Hal ini membuat Jepang tetap sebagai negara dengan suku bunga terendah dibandingkan dengan negara-negara industri besar lainnya. Selain itu, investor Jepang juga banyak melakukan pembelian aset berdenominasi mata uang asing dengan imbal hasil besar ( high yield ), sehingga aktifitas carry trade meningkat. Sementara itu, sentimen positif terhadap Yen muncul setelah harga-harga saham di Asia mengalami penurunan akhir minggu lalu sehingga menimbulkan kekhawatiran di antara para investor yang memegang aset dengan imbal hasil tinggi (high yield ). Karena itu mereka mulai mengurangi aktifitas carry trade tersebut. Read the rest of this entry »





Weekly Currency 7 Januari 2008

8 01 2008

Nilai tukar Yen menguat terhadap USD dalam perdagangan minggu kemarin. Pada hari pertama perdagangan, Yen ditutup menguat pada level 111.7 dari level 112.3 pada penutupan hari Jumat minggu sebelumnya (28 Desember 2007). Pada hari perdagangan selanjutnya, Yen terus menguat hingga akhirnya ditutup pada level 108.6 di hari Jumat yang lalu (4 Januari 2008). Secara keseluruhan, Yen menguat sebesar 3.3% dibandingkan penutupan minggu sebelumnya.

Euro tidak banyak berubah terhadap Dolar Amerika dalam perdagangan minggu kemarin. Pada hari pertama perdagangan, Euro ditutup melemah pada level 1.459 dari level 1.472 pada hari Jumat minggu sebelumnya (28 Desember 2007). Namun pada perdagangan selanjutnya, Euro kembali menguat. Sehingga pada akhir perdagangan pekan kemarin, Euro ditutup pada level 1.474 pada hari Jumat kemarin. Secara keseluruhan, Euro hanya menguat sebesar 0.1% dari penutupan minggu sebelumnya.

Dalam perdagangan minggu kemarin, nilai tukar Rupiah melemah terhadap USD. Pada hari pertama perdagangan, Rupiah ditutup pada level 9,400 dari level 9,395 pada hari Jumat minggu sebelumnya (28 Desember 2007). Pada hari-hari perdagangan berikutnya, Rupiah relatif stabil. Namun pada akhir perdangangan minggu lalu, Rupiah melemah tajam dan ditutup pada level 9,460 pada Jumat kemarin. Secara keseluruhan, Rupiah melemah sebesar 0.6% dari penutupan minggu sebelumnya. Weekly Currency 7 Januari 2008





Weekly Report 10 December 2007

11 12 2007

Weekly Outlook : The central bank’s decision to cut interest rates provides the impetus for further gains in share prices this week as the year-end approaches. As we had earlier noted, share prices have risen in every December in the last six years – and this year looks like being no exception. And expectations of a cut in interest rates in the US should also add to the positive market sentiment. Thus, against this backdrop, sentiment on the domestic bourse should remain upbeat this week with the JCI heading toward the 2,800 level.

Stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, formed by a merger of the Jakarta and Surabaya bourses, rose to new highs last week. The main index even broke through the 2,800 level at one point, although shares later gave up some of their gains on profit taking. Over the week, the index closed 90.62 points higher at 2,778.95. The gains in stock prices were supported by a number of factors. First of all was the unexpected move by the central bank to cut its benchmark interest rate from 8.25% to 8%. This move reassures investors that inflationary pressures are not as strong as earlier feared despite the high oil prices, i.e. the longer-term inflation rate is still benign. On the domestic front, the issue concerning government plans to rein in fuel subsidies remained in the limelight. Yet hopes that the oil price was on the way down – it’ s fallen by more than 13 percent from its recent high – suggest that the government may not have to implement such plans. And even if they do, the idea of requiring private motorists to use nonsubsidized fuel is now becoming increasingly more accepted since the less well off – such as those who use motorcycles or public transport – would not be affected. Doubts, however, remain over implementation. Read the rest of this entry »





Weekly Report 3 December 2007

4 12 2007

Weekly Outlook : The subdued inflation for November (+0.18 percent month-on-month) has created positive market sentiment. Hopes are that further rate cuts are possible provided that inflation can be reined in over the next few months. As such, stocks may edge higher this week with the JCI heading toward the 2,730 level. Yet longer-term there are some dark clouds on the horizon, with the prospect of the government adopting a policy to restrict supplies of subsidized fuel posing a major downside risk to stock prices.

Indonesian stocks climbed higher last week despite soaring crude oil prices. There were a number of supporting factors. First was the improved sentiment on Wall Street as well as on regional markets as investors surmised that the Fed would be forced to play its hand and cut rates in the future in order to avert economic weakness. And from the domestic side, concerns over the controversial ruling against Temasek eased as investors increasingly believe that the initial adverse market reaction was overdone. Stock wise, coal miners and CPO stocks continued to perform well. Hence, against this backdrop, the JCI put on an impressive head of steam last week, gaining103.98 points or 4.0 percent to 2,688.33.

In the last six years, Jakarta stocks have risen in every December: by 5.0% in 2006, by 6.8% in 2005, 2.4% in 2004, 12.0% in 2003, 8.8% in 2002 and 3.1% in 2001. But the market has been in a bullish trend in these years of course. Indeed, the JCI showed an average monthly return of 4.6% in 2006, 1.4% in 2005, 3.7% in 2004, 5.2% in 2003, 0.67% in 2002, and a negative 0.5% in 2001.

Government might limit Premium fuel sales According to news reports, the government is strongly considering the idea of whether to force all private motorists to switch to non-subsidized fuel (such as Pertamina’s Pertamax brand) from subsidized Premium petrol starting in January next year. To achieve this goal, the government would strictly limit supplies of Premium petrol. Thus, with limited availability of Premium fuel, motorists would have little choice but to switch to unsubsidized fuel brands. However, it is not clear how a workable mechanism could be devised to ensure that non-private motorists – such as operators of public transportation vehicles – would still be able to obtain premium fuel.

Indonesia’s automakers said last week that they would limit increases in car prices to only around 2-3 percent next year despite rising inflationary pressures. This, they say, is far below the level needed to take into account the impact of surging crude oil prices and other rising costs. According to the automakers it is not possible for them to raise prices too much given the elasticity of demand to hikes in selling prices. As such, automakers’ margins may be squeezed unless they can find other ways to slash costs (i.e. cutting marketing and advertising budgets etc). At the same time, the weak rupiah is also hurting automakers, pushing up the cost of raw materials. Indonesia Weekly Market Report 3 December 2007





Weekly Outlook Nov26, 2007

26 11 2007

Weekly Outlook : Stocks may arrest their falls this week boosted by the rebound on Wall Street and the upbeat sentiment on regional markets. Moreover, the bad news on Temasek may also be overdone, since the ruling is company specific and should have a minimal impact on listed companies overall. And the historical tendency for stocks to do well in December should also not be disregarded. As such, the market may recover somewhat this week with the JCI heading toward the 2,630-2,650 level.

Stocks listed on the JSX extended their losses last week after the Indonesian anti-monopoly watchdog ruled against Temasek. The decision led to widespread selling as market players fear that foreign investors may be much more cautious now in their investment plans. Other market negatives were the persistently high crude oil prices that raise concerns over weaker corporate profits growth – fuel supplied to industrial customers in Indonesia is not subsidized – and lingering worries over the US economy outlook. Over the week, the JCI lost 99.19 points or 3.7 percent to 2,569.51. Read the rest of this entry »





Weekly Outlook 19 Nov 2007

19 11 2007

The market may again struggle for direction this week. Concerns that high oil prices will hit corporate profitability will likely limit upside potential. Yet at the same time, shares in companies which are not so exposed to rising energy prices may remain attractive given that the economy is continuing to grow at a faster pace. As such, stocks may consolidate this week with the JCI remaining in the range 2,650-2,700.

Another choppy week for Indonesian stocks as heightened concerns over the threat of inflationary pressures and a possible sharp downturn in the US economy were set against new economic data that shows that the Indonesian economy is picking up its growth pace on the back of low domestic interest rates and buoyant commodity prices. Indeed, according to the data released by the central bureau of statistics last week, the Indonesian economy grew at its fastest pace in the last 10 years, clocking up growth of 6.5 percent in 3Q07, or slightly higher than the 6.3 percent growth rate seen in the second quarter of the year.

Sentiment in the market was also buoyed by the successful IPO of state toll road developer Jasa Marga which stands to benefit if the government can finally get its muchheralded infrastructure initiative off the ground. So far, however, the results have not been good – although, going forward, a more concerted effort by the government to get things right in 2008 is expected.
Read the rest of this entry »





Weekly Report 12 November 2007

12 11 2007

JCI Stock Performance


The strong gains in the market this year have resulted in lofty valuations despite Indonesia’s rosy growth prospects, meaning that some stocks are ripe for profit taking. And concerns on corporate profitability will heighten given the surging crude oil prices. Moreover, investors may also come to see that domestic interest rates have now reached a trough, and that there is little room for further rate cuts given the current conditions. Weak regional sentiment will also put pressure on stocks. As such, stocks are likely to head lower this week with the JCI heading toward the 2,650 level.

Stocks listed on the JSX may come under pressure this week. The strong gains in the market this year have resulted in lofty valuations despite Indonesia’s rosy growth prospects, meaning that some stocks are ripe for profit taking. And concerns on corporate profitability will heighten given the surging crude oil prices. Moreover, investors may also come to see that domestic interest rates have now reached a trough, and that there is little room for further rate cuts given the current conditions. Weak regional sentiment will also put pressure on stocks. As such, stocks are likely to head lower this week with the JCI heading toward the 2,650 level. Weekly Market Commentary 12November07