Weekly Currency 10 December 2007

11 12 2007

Nilai tukar Yen melemah terhadap USD dalam perdagangan minggu kemarin. Pada hari kedua perdagangan, Yen sempat ditutup menguat pada level 109.9 dari level 112.2 pada penutupan hari Jumat minggu sebelumnya (30 November 2007). Namun pada perdagangan berikutnya, Yen kembali melemah. Yen akhirnya ditutup pada level 111.7 di hari Jumat yang lalu (7 Desember 2007). Secara keseluruhan, Yen melemah sebesar 0.4% dibandingkan penutupan minggu sebelumnya.

Apabila pada dua pekan sebelumnya Yen melemah cukup signifikan akibat menguatnya aktivitas carry trade, pergerakan Yen pada pekan kemarin bersifat mixed dan relatif terbatas. Hal ini sedikit banyak menunjukkan bahwa investor global memilih untuk berhati – hati mengantisipasi putusan The Fed pertengahan pekan ini.

Untuk perdagangan minggu ini, nilai tukar Yen terhadap Dolar Amerika masih akan dipengaruhi oleh perkembangan data ekonomi terakhir baik di Jepang maupun Amerika. Data terakhir menunjukkan terjadi peningkatan permintaan mesin produksi untuk korporasi di Jepang, yang mengindikasikan antisipasi korporasi Jepang atas peningkatan permintaan baik di wilayah domestik-regional (Jepang dan Asia) maupun di tingkat global. Hasil survei bisnis yang dilakukan oleh Bank Sentral Jepang (BoJ) memperkuat hal ini. Hasil survei tersebut menunjukkan bahwa mayoritas CEO perusahaan besar di Jepang berencana untuk meningkatkan belanja modal perusahaan pada penghujung tahun 2007 ini. Selain itu diperkirakan investor global akan mengantisipasi penurunan Fed Funds Rate dengan kembali melakukan aktivitas carry trade pada pekan ini. Karena itu, Yen diperkirakan akan melemah dalam perdagangan minggu ini dan bergerak di kisaran 110.5 – 113.0. Read the rest of this entry »

Weekly Report 10 December 2007

11 12 2007

Weekly Outlook : The central bank’s decision to cut interest rates provides the impetus for further gains in share prices this week as the year-end approaches. As we had earlier noted, share prices have risen in every December in the last six years – and this year looks like being no exception. And expectations of a cut in interest rates in the US should also add to the positive market sentiment. Thus, against this backdrop, sentiment on the domestic bourse should remain upbeat this week with the JCI heading toward the 2,800 level.

Stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, formed by a merger of the Jakarta and Surabaya bourses, rose to new highs last week. The main index even broke through the 2,800 level at one point, although shares later gave up some of their gains on profit taking. Over the week, the index closed 90.62 points higher at 2,778.95. The gains in stock prices were supported by a number of factors. First of all was the unexpected move by the central bank to cut its benchmark interest rate from 8.25% to 8%. This move reassures investors that inflationary pressures are not as strong as earlier feared despite the high oil prices, i.e. the longer-term inflation rate is still benign. On the domestic front, the issue concerning government plans to rein in fuel subsidies remained in the limelight. Yet hopes that the oil price was on the way down – it’ s fallen by more than 13 percent from its recent high – suggest that the government may not have to implement such plans. And even if they do, the idea of requiring private motorists to use nonsubsidized fuel is now becoming increasingly more accepted since the less well off – such as those who use motorcycles or public transport – would not be affected. Doubts, however, remain over implementation. Read the rest of this entry »